The S&P 500 is likely to fall by 20-25 percent over the next three months according to Nomura strategist Bob Janjuah.

In a research note published on Tuesday, the long-term bear who called the recent rally for U.S. stocks said he expects investors to be back in risk-off mode until the U.S. election is over.

“I now think the correct thing to do — as I also said in April and June — is to prepare for a serious risk-off phase between August and November…over the August to November period I am looking for the S&P 500 [.SPX  1407.97    -5.20  (-0.37%)   ] to trade off down from around 1400…by 20 to 25 percent…to trade at or below the lows of 2011.”

“This coming major risk-off phase will, in my view, also be very dollar bullish and bullish core government bonds,” said Janjuah, who thinks 10-year debt in the U.S., Germany and the U.K. could hit just one percent, and who is predicting more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve in December.

“For now we are happy to risk 30 S&P points against us, in order to potentially pick up 300 S&P points in our favor.”